Yesterday , I did a easy tough calculation about Basic Motors to attempt to get at how a lot manufacturing job loss one could attribute to overseas competitors versus automation and productivity will increase. Various commenters objected that my assumptions had been too simplistic, significantly in neglecting the home content in foreign autos and the importance of shifts within the supply chain over time.
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Complicating your exercise even more is the fact that folks are likely to preserve their vehicles longer nowadays than they used to. This is largely as a result of quality has gone up, reducing the frequency wanted to purchase a new automotive. I suspect this has way more to do with the declining share of GDP dedicated to auto purchases than any of the other elements you talked about.
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